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Putting the Corona Virus Numbers in Context

category international | rights, freedoms and repression | feature author Sunday April 05, 2020 23:11author by 1 of indy Report this post to the editors

The current shutdown of the economy and lockdown of society all around the world is unprecedented and it is very clear that the media are talking up the number and trying to instil panic and fear in the people. This is true not just in Ireland but everywhere else. What all the media reports have in common is that not a single one of them puts the numbers into perspective. All we see are league tables of infections and deaths for this country and others and how it is all going to get worse.

Update: The common flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization


THIS IS HUGE: Stanford’s Antibodies Study Wraps Up, Shows Covid-19 Is 50x More Prevalent and 50x Less Deadly Than Believed
https://youtu.be/jGUgrEfSgaU

The purpose of this article is to introduce some rational discussion of these numbers and show how it all relates to each other.

Regular Yearly and Daily Deaths in Various Countries

So for example in the case of Ireland the headline screams today (Sat 4th Apr) 17 more deaths and 331 new cases for a total of 4,604. Anyone following the news will know this daily death rate has risen over the last week or so and 17 people is quite alot and brings the total so far to 137. So now we will put this in context.

Consider a country with a population of 100 million and in it, there are an equal number of people at each age group. And lets assume the number of people born is more or less the same as the number who die. This would mean a growth rate of zero percent. We know most Western countries have a growth of anywhere from 1% to 2%. So now assume most people in this country live on average for 100 years. In fact the average expectancy in Ireland is 81.5. But lets stick with 100 for now. Then if you only last 100 years this would mean in a population of 100 million that each year (which is 1% of 100 years) that 1% of the people die. Well 1% of 100 million is simply one million. Therefore the number of people who die per day is 1,000,000 / 365 or 2,739 people per day. Now applying this logic to the USA with a population of approximately 331 million means 3.3 million die a year or 9,068 deaths a day. Italy has a population of 60m. This would then be 600,000 per year or 1,643 per day and for Ireland with a population of 4.9 million, the above would suggest about 49,000 deaths per year.

The above 'model' is fairly crude since the shape of the population curve is not uniform and people don't live to 100 on average. However it is surprisingly close to the actual figures and within 20% or so. Here are the normal deaths on a regular year for a sample of countries.

Normal number of deaths per year and day for selected countries
Country Population Deaths / year Deaths per day
Ireland 4.9 million 31,116
(in 2018)
85
U.K. 67.8 million 616,014
(in 2018)
1,688
Italy 60.4 million 610,645 1,673
Spain 46.7 million 474,523
(in 2018)
1,300
USA 331 million 2,813,503
(2017)
7,708
China 1,439 million 10.5 million 28,800

It would be a reasonable bet that few people realized that on average 85 people die every single day in Ireland. When you realize this then the 17 does not seem so catastrophic and earth shattering. But lets dig a bit deeper. In the report from the www.hpsc.ie for Apr 3rd where up to that point there were 113 deaths, here is the breakdown of death by Covid-19 by age. Unfortunately though anyone over 65 is in one age bracket and we have to question why they didn't continue the 10 year age brackets. Is it to hype the numbers and make it seem that the risk at death at 65 or 66 seems higher than it is. From RTE news reports it says the median age of today's reported deaths is 77 -that is of the 17 today. This is quite close to the average life expectancy of 81.5.

Covid-19 Deaths by Age Profile

Update 2: The Italian government has released the percentage of deaths by age group and that works out at 99% over the age of 60 or 83% of all Covid deaths over the age of 70. And please see Important Update below as only 12% of these deaths may actually be cause by Covid since most of these people had other life threatening illnesses
Update 3: Up to 99% of people who died in Italy from Covid had other underlying conditions and very likely many of them would have died if not immediately, very soon afterwards

Age Group Number of Deaths
< 5 0
5 - 14 0
15 - 24 0
25 - 34 2
35 - 44 1
45 - 54 1
55 - 64 6
65 + 103
Percentage of Deaths by Age Group in Italy due to Covid-19*
* see Important Update box below
Age Group Percentage of Deaths
60 - 69 16%
70 - 79 35%
80 - 89 42%
90+ 6%

Yet another point is that the figure of 81.5 for average life expectancy is for both males and females, but the separate figures are 83.4 for females and 79.7 for males and one of the strange things about the virus is that far more men die of it than women. Going back to that media age of 77 this is noticed it is reasonably close to the average age of men. It seems like if you are within a year or two of your average life expectancy for your sex and you came down seriously ill with Covid then you are in real danger.

If one looks at the normal distribution on any given year by age, not all the people who die on a given day are either 83.4 if female and 79.7 if male. The two charts below from the Central Statistics Office show what it looks like. This really means that you have to include deaths of 'younger' people by accidents, suicide and diseases like heart attacks and cancer but you can still see that they still make up a smaller portion of the daily body count.

An interesting question then is of the 17 Covid deaths today who had a median age of 77, should these been added to the regular daily death rate of 85 people or is there some overlap? The chart below suggests overlap. Having said that no-one wants to die even one day before their time.

featured image featured image


In the current climate of fear and panic, people don't like to listen to anyone who questions the official narrative in any way. A common argument put forward when the above facts are presented is that 'yeah but young people are getting it and have died'. Well yes that is true, but so is it true that young people get cancer and die. The argument is really used to just shutdown debate and try make you out to be some sort of callous creature.

Now that these numbers have been put into a bit of context, when we hear for example 700 people died in a single day in Italy which is really broadcast to scare the pants off us, we can see the 700 in comparison to the 1,618 that die on a given day is not so end of the world. It is high though but again the same characteristics of the age profile is likely to occur.

At this point in the discussion, the people who are most frightened and righteous minded are shouting but that's not the point it will go exponential and we have to lock down to stop it.



Important Update 1: Italy

It looks like Italy which is the epicentre of the scare where it is important to hype the numbers to scare us all has massively talked up the numbers on deaths.

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics – the nation has the second oldest population worldwide – and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.

“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older – the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.” [Note by Indy Editor. Median age is lower in China.]

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.”

So in effect they are re-categorizing all the regular people who die of cancer, heart disease, flu and everything else and saying they are dying of Covid-19. That is why the numbers are closing in on the normal daily rates. What this means is that we have to suspect everything including what are the tests actually testing.

Important Update 2: The Consequence of the Low Number of Flu Deaths Last Year

At any given time there is always a certain fraction of people who are dying of some underlying disease and do not have too long to live maybe of the order of a few days to a several months. Each year when the flu season comes along, it is these people who often succumb and they are swept up by the virus and constitute a vulnerable population in which to take hold. This is because people in that state of health with their immune system very low are especially at risk. However last year the number of flu deaths was down everywhere in both Europe and the US. This means therefore that the pool of vulnerable people that normally die were available this year to the Corona-virus and so this goes along way to explain the legit deaths that did occur and in Northern Italy which has a particularly old population this explains why it appear to affect it so much although the point raised above that probably only 12% should really qualify for death by Covid still stands.




Predictions, the Economy and Human Life

Switching to the UK a few weeks back Neil Ferguson at Imperial College (Ref 1) who was advising the UK government was predicting 500,000 deaths in the UK. A very high figure indeed. Incidentally he has since changed his view and says the NHS will be just about able to cope and reckons the death rate will be around 20,000. Both terrible figures especially when they are not put in context. But they are now. Checking our table above, we see 616,000 deaths by year in the UK. So if Covid-19 is primarily killing those (and not all) who are within a year or two of the end of their live, we can see where this figure of 500k comes from. It is more or less all the deaths of the year compressed into one. What is never stated is whether this is 500,000 extra deaths. It is probably a very significant overlap.

Returning now to the crisis there are a few key points which we are all aware of and most people will agree;

  • The entire economy in most of Europe, USA and other parts of the world is shutdown indefinitely
  • All schools, colleges, hotels, pubs, cafes, restaurants and non-essential shops are closed
  • In Ireland several 100,000 have lost their jobs and almost everyone else working from home with restrictions to stay within 2km of your residence
  • Ryanair has grounded at least 90% of all it's large fleet of airplanes. As have Aer Lingus, British Airways, Luftansa and basically every other major airline in Europe and the US. During 911, they were grounded for a few days. This is going on for weeks. There has never been anything remotely like this.
  • The economic impact is unprecedented and runs to trillions worldwide and many economists expect if not a world depression certainly a bad recession.
  • Pension funds and investments are being decimated.
  • Social effects are massively disruptive and the suicide rate is probably increasing.
  • Hospitals are more or less empty as regular surgeries are cancelled and people who get mild strokes and heart attacks are reportedly not going to hospital for fear of covid-19 or fear of being a burden. By not doing so, some of these people will die who otherwise might not have. The situation with people attending various other clinic -e.g. cancer treatment is unclear.

Now we are told we had to do this in order to save human life. And it is true human life matters. So why then have most governments underfunded health care for years. Why did the Conservatives in the UK gut the number of beds after the 2008 crisis considering now the UK is at standstill and the costs will far exceed any bailouts to the rich? In the case of Ireland we should ask Fine Gael, why did they let the Vulture Funds in and through other measures ramp up the number of homeless to 10,000 of which about 3,000 are children. Why was people with special needs and those on low income the ones who were hit by huge cutbacks during the crisis since it affected them badly? Why is so much junk food allowed and people's health to grow worse and obesity rates to soar. Why has a sugar tax been resisted and so on.

We hear that in hospitals in Italy and elsewhere doctors have to make tough decisions like giving respirators to young people instead of old people. Does this not contradict things abit. I thought it was mainly old people dying as the stats for Ireland and Italy show. Sure there are many more in ICU than dead. So in essence everyone agrees a young life is more valuable in the sense it is not yet lived. But the evidence clearly shows that they don't really care about the young people as in this country we have just shown 1/3 of homeless people are kids and the rest are probably in their 20s, 30s and 40s. Surely your risk of mental and physical ill health are sky rocket when you are homeless. Do you have to get Covid-19 and then they care. Building social housing for them all would cost a lot less than this crisis is costing. And people forget than literally 10s of thousands of social houses were built in this country where we were dirt poor in place like Crumlin, Kimmage, Finglas, Ballyfermot and all around the country. There are a lot of inconsistencies as you can see. Yet I can still hear the chant in the background 'exponential', 'exponential'.

A few words for the UK and the USA, if human life matters so much why did they knowingly go to war under false pretexts in which hundreds of thousands of died, millions injured in Iraq and so forth and where they wasted trillion which could have been used for health and education for improving the life of people in their own countries. It seems odd they have now stopped their precious economies all of a sudden.

And a few words for India. Population about 1,352 million people. The country is in lockdown because they care too. Yet hundreds of million live in dire poverty anyhow. For example there are slums with millions in them all over Mumbai none of which have proper running water or sewage. The biggest one called Dharavi has 900,000 people living it. No sewers! And the India government is worried about them. It would be interesting to see the life expectancy of those people, child mortality and so forth.

Comparison with Flu numbers

It is therefore time to look at some other similar scaled disasters. First off Covid-19 is NOT the flu and is a new novel strain of a SARS like virus. It should be noted that any comparison with flu is met with anger and people are simply not allowed to discuss it and Covid-19 together. Maybe the reason for that will be clear in a moment.

The flu season normally lasts around 100 days or so and goes from mid-November end of February and by that is meant the bulk of the infections and deaths. This does not rule out that people can get it in the summer. Last year was a good year in UK and Ireland. Flu deaths were way down. When people get the flu and become seriously ill they quite often get pneumonia -the same complication that Covid-19 people are getting. It would appear most cases of pneumonia -up to now -are triggered by the flu. The flu virus itself kills not too many but pneumonia cases are nearly always considered as a result of flu and that is why the national statistics always have a category for influenza related deaths. This means technically people who are said to have died of flu didn't really die of flu but of pneumonia. This is the exact same case for Covid-19. Many are those dying are dying of pneumonia and it is marked as death by Covid-19. That is reasonable enough. This means when counting flu deaths we can include pneumonia because they are counting them in as death by Covid-19 when a Covid-19 patient dies of pneumonia.

So how many people died of flu in Ireland not last year but in other years. Answer according to a press release from HSE (Ref 2) issued on Oct 1st 2016 they say:

The flu vaccine is a lifesaver because flu can be a very serious and sometimes deadly disease, with potentially 1,000 flu related deaths in Ireland during a severe flu season....

They quote this figure because they were trying to get people to take the vaccine. If we go to CSO figures for influenza related deaths these are shown in the table below which were pieced together from the published Excel sheets for death by cause for the years 2015 to 2017. The format was slightly different each year so the tag line is added for each year to show what it was.

Number of Flu Deaths in Ireland
Figures from CSO
Year Influenza Related Deaths
2015 1,199 (Influenza and pneumonia)
2016 1,127 (Influenza and pneumonia)
2017 1,147 (Influenza and pneumonia)

As we can see this tallies with what the HSE said in their press release. The chart below shows the number of flu infections for the given week of the year and this will automatically correspond with the number of deaths. In other words the bulk occur in the flu season. There is one thing which appears to be out of alignment and that is in the Annual Epidemiological Report from http://www.hpsc.ie covering flu, they seem to only count the direct flu deaths and do NOT include the pneumonia caused by flu and therefore come out with lower numbers. Since it was difficult to get a graph of deaths for Ireland, we will use one from the data for the US, which shows the number of deaths per week for the time of the year from 2010 to 2018. All that is being illustrated is the way it peaks and it will be the same everywhere.

featured image

So accepting an average figure of 1,000 death on an average year and if we assume 100 days for the flu season for the sake of simplicity, then that works out at 10 deaths per day. Up to yesterday that was not far off the same death rate as so far from Covid-19. The panic crowd are now praying that the exponential curve kicks in to prove this article wrong.

But to finish up lets dig out the flu death rates for the UK. Again last year they were really low so here they are for previous years taken from the UK government publication called: Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK Winter 2018 to 2019 and from their Table 7 on page 51. One assumes they are using the influenza related deaths which is flu + pneumonia. If 1,100+ people die in Ireland and UK has a population 67.8 / 4.9 = 13.8 times larger then we would expect around about 15,180 deaths in the UK. It seems all flu deaths are estimates anyhow because not all of the people die in hospital.



Number of Flu Deaths in UK
Season Influenza Related Deaths
2014 / 2015 28,330
2015 / 2016 11,875
2016 / 2017 18,009
2017 / 2018 26,408
2018 / 2019 1,692

The first thing we see is the estimate extrapolated from Irish figures is not far off and second the new estimate for the number of deaths now suggested by the advisor to UK government Neil Ferguson quoted above of 20,000 deaths is very close to normal year of flu deaths.

So if this lower figure pans out in the UK and lets assume the death toll in Ireland goes from the current 137 today to say a massive 500 or half the normal number of flu deaths, does the question not arise why has the world economy been put in shutdown and literally hundreds of thousands of companies around Europe and the rest of the world driven to bankruptcy along with millions of jobs?

To finish off we can say the flu death rate in Italy with a very similar population to the UK must match it. In Ref 3 below which links to a study of flu deaths in Italy over 4 seasons from 2013/2014 to 2016/2017 it estimates 68,000 deaths. That works out at 68,000/4 or 17,000 deaths per year. This is in sync with the UK.

We are finally ready to publish the league tables we have seen so much of except this time, we will put in the flu deaths along side the Covid tallies so far and suddenly the world does not seem so frightening. It does raise the question why have in previous years it's pretty much okay for so many to die of flu but this year it is all out global panic. You can probably hear this: It's a new virus and its exponential and this is only the start of the big curve and a lot worse is to come and young people are dying... or so they say.

There is also something odd about the respirators. We seem to be given the impression that they are need for the younger people like those in the 30s, 40s and 50s but the reality appears to be is that older people are on them given what doctors are saying. The impression that it looks like they are trying to make is that only for the lockdown preventing the surge we would ran out and these younger people who die and they are more like you and me. It is sort of implied if this got out of hand -i.e. no lockdown, then we would all become seriously ill and die. Its implied. The authorities are really working for you and your safety. Funny though the way there are just so many reports in all the affected countries where doctors and health care workers are being sent into the frontline without proper or insufficient protection equipment. Do they really care about them.

Country Covid-19 death tally
so far
Influenza Related Deaths (average)
Ireland 137 1,100+
U.K. 4,932 11,000 to 28,000
depending on year
Italy 15,362 17,000
depending on year
Spain 11,947 No figure but with population of 46m estimate is 13,000 year
USA 8,407 Varies from 3,000 and 49,000
China 3,318 Unknown

So What is Going On ?

The real puzzle is why in China where 10 million people die every year or 900,000 a month and yet in the month of January or so, 3,318 died from Covid-19. That works out at 0.36% of the regular monthly total. Here's the clincher, either:

  • China thought it was under a covert bio-weapon attack as voiced by the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian who claimed US military brought corona virus to Wuhan -see Ref 4.
  • Or a faction in China that opposes Xi Jinping and who are aligned and linked in some way with the 0.01% -i.e. probably the same group of 62 people as widely reported by Oxfam (Ref 5) and others who own half the world's wealth and have immense power. -that this group managed to instigate panic in China before Xi got it under control. The sole intent was to spread panic worldwide and essentially shutdown the global economy for some kind of reset of the global order.

Indeed the amount of financial debt in the world runs to trillion and trillions and if we could derivatives then it is really off the scale in quintillions. Nothing was fixed after the 2008 crisis and the debt has only got bigger. But the richest and most powerful in the world already have so much. In their position money surely does not count and only power does. With the rise of high tech and the surveillance state, the West must surely have been looking jealously at China for the past decade or more admiring their highly effective almost total control of society especially with constant monitoring and awarding of social credits which are sort of the new currency in China and plays a role in determining what you are allowed do.

You see by making use of a real infectious virus that is killing some people but is not Black Death in scale yet until iteration 2 if this round doesn't do the trick, the game plan whatever it is, is global in scale and being rolled out that way. The vast majority in government and authority are just being carried along by the momentum and some are enjoying their new found powers but there are much bigger forces at play and the world media all of which is owned and controlled by the most powerful are the real drivers of the show. A few very frightening things have been learnt so far:

  • People are readily eager to give up all their freedoms, jobs and rights for apparent security
  • People are more than eager to do the work of the authorities and police each other.
  • People will believe absolutely anything they are told by the authorities and will very reluctantly believe other sources unless it matches the official narrative. Fear of being called a nut or conspiracy freak is sky high and the label amounts to social death
  • People will not question anything no matter how little sense it makes and how inconsistent it is

This and more will be teased out in a follow up article.


Don't worry it is just a bad dream. Really people shouldn't worry. It is just like what the authorities everywhere say it is. They are looking after you and when this is all over they are going to clear all your debts and make the world right. There is certainly nothing sinister going on and that is just a crazy conspiracy. So just shut the f**k up and go back to not thinking above your station.

References:

Ref 1a:
Scientist behind 'gold standard' model that predicted 500K deaths in UK (and 2 million in US) admits he was off, now says there will be 20K or fewer in the UK
https://www.theblaze.com/news/scientist-predicted-500k-deaths-now-says-20k

Ref 1b:
Neil Ferguson now says 20,00 death
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Ref 2:
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/annualseasonalfluvaccinationcampaign%20.html

Ref 3:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

Ref 4:
https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/chinese-foreign-ministry-spokesman-tweets-claim-us-military-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan/ar-BB118d8G

Ref 5:
https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/62-people-own-same-half-world-reveals-oxfam-davos-report

Caption: In this video subtitled Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg calmly points out the gaps in understanding and provides sober analysis


Caption: THIS IS HUGE: Stanford’s Antibodies Study Wraps Up, Shows Covid-19 Is 50x More Prevalent and 50x Less Deadly Than Believed


author by anonpublication date Thu Apr 09, 2020 15:13author address author phone Report this post to the editors

A good example is the so called death of the youngest victim from Covid 19 in the UK except he didnt as apparently he died in 2017.

Click on the image to see how they just make stuff up.

Boy 13 reported dead in 2017 by Irish Times then again in April of Covid-19 in the UK. We are being lied too.
Boy 13 reported dead in 2017 by Irish Times then again in April of Covid-19 in the UK. We are being lied too.

author by Gary Boynepublication date Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:40author address author phone Report this post to the editors

I can't help but be curious as to how the virus is being spread if everyone has been in lockdown and has been social distancing for weeks now.

Hawkish elements in the mainstream media and in the political class are exploiting this current crisis to prepare public consciousness in the West for a future war with the PRC.

author by Pearse Monnetpublication date Mon Apr 13, 2020 14:21author email author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Punk Legend and libertarian philosopher Jello Biafra answers . . . . . .
Is this a pandemic?
How have cuts to public spending affected the response?
How can we be creative with the masks?

Caption: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxe8Cg3VKu8


author by Tpublication date Mon Apr 13, 2020 22:26author address author phone Report this post to the editors

RTE News is reporting today a total of 31 died. The total is at 365 still only one third of the flu death body count from a normal year of flu. 2019 was lower than average.

RTE also report:

Of the 31 additional deaths announced this evening, 18 were female and 13 were male.

Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said that there were reports of an underlying condition for 25 of the 31 people who died and that the median age was 82.

80% of people who have been admitted to ICU to be treated for Covid-19 have had an underlying illness.


While death is a terrible thing, it is highly suspicious that 4 billion people along with their economies are in lock down. There is something very big up and it can't be good.

And this none-sense where people walk around you like you are a leper when outside is ridiculous as even RTE are saying:

Generally, you need to be 15 minutes or more in the vicinity of an infected person and within two metres of them, to be considered at-risk, or a close contact.

Isn't it funny the way all the emphasis is on following the rules regardless of whether it makes any sense?

author by devils advocatepublication date Mon Apr 13, 2020 23:55author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Interesting article.

I think you also need however to factor in the reduced deaths because of
social distancing and reduced activities which often lead to a portion of annual deaths.
Reduced deaths would include road deaths, work accidents, flu (social distancing reduces flu transmission) and other transmissable diseases.

so, you are left with
expected normal average annual deaths of all kinds
- reduction in deaths due to isolation measures (flu, road accidents, work accidents etc )
+ extra deaths due to social isolation measures (extra suicides and murders of family members and spouses!! :-D ) drug overdoses, and people very sick but reluctant to attend hospital etc.

We could have the actual figure for deaths for the year in january / feb 2021
only then will we see whether the figure is above the average
and by how much due to coronavirus.

And then you have this "muddying of the water" question.
If you have a heart condition and covid - 19 brings on heart failure, is that counted as a covid-19 death or a heart failure death?
Personally I'd say that's a covid-19 death, as you might otherwise have lived longer.

If i whacked that same person over the head with a brick and they died then it would still be considered murder.
I couldn't claim in court that it didn't count as murder because their underlying condition was responsible!

There IS overlap in the figures. Perhaps this man might have died next month and factored in to the "people with heart condition"
annual death figures. Thus I would have increased the "death by murder" annual figure by 1 and reduced the "death by heart attack" figure by 1
so the average should still be the same.
But I still can't argue this in court can I?

Of course at the end of the day, there is no getting around the fact that we have way too few beds in ICU to handle a big surge in critical cases.
if quarantining was abandoned altogether then the numbers in ICU spiked and triaging became necessary then deaths due to covid -19 would likely be much higher here.

So flattening the curve is still a prudent precaution. Whether we like it or not.

And if we do successfully flatten the curve with these social measures then the death figure may not be as bad
as we are handling the flow of critical cases much better.

Ironically at the end we will be left with the question "was a mere x deaths worth the economic cost"?
The only reply to that will be "if we didn't do this we would likely have had y deaths in stead of x deaths
so was y-x deaths worth the improved economy"?

I can't answer this without discussing "the importance of human life vs making money" which is an ideological question.
And a question which this situation has perhaps brought to the fore.

Perhaps the real interesting issue here is how we structure our societies: as a bunch of ruthless individualist rats grubbing for money
as opposed to organising it as collectivists communally working together to service basic human needs as our priority,
and how such structures adapt to shocks such as epidemics or disasters.

My own hope is we exit this no longer thinking like selfish rats as we did beforehand!

author by Tpublication date Tue Apr 14, 2020 12:09author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Exactly and the only argument left by the lockdown crowd is that if we had not the surge would have killed more according to their models.

The problems with this is that all the models at heart have an exponential function to them and that is highly sensitive to the controlling parameters, so a small tweak results in huge differences. That is why the model fluctuate.

The second thing is whether their assumptions are correct. I doubt it.

The third is the numbers. They are suspect. There are many more people who have got this, were never tested and got over it but since they are not counted in the statistics it makes the death rate higher. The death figure is one of the numbers plugged into the models. The higher that, the higher the surge.

So if you say 1,000 were infected and 10 died then that is 1% death rate.
If in fact, it was 2,000 were infected and 10 died then that is half percent (0.5%) death rate.
And if it was 4,000 infected and 10 died we are down to one quarter of a percent.

Every dead body gets counted, but not every infection.

There is clear evidence about that doctors have been issued guidance about filling out death certificates and it is heavily slanted towards writing in Covid-19. This would also automatically skew the statistics to give much higher death rates and thereby scare people.

Even if we accept the potential of some level of surge and that is a very reasonable thing to do, there are still things that could have been done bearing in mind the total cost so far which for Ireland alone is tens of billions. For less money we could have installed mobile type scrubs units for dis-infecting at the entrance of every nursing home where most of the deaths are. We could have issued directives to all people sick with cancer, heart failure and all the rest to isolate and could even have offered to do it the way TB hospitals (sanitariums) were setup years ago where people went off to them to sit out the illness and stop the spread. In the 1950s, over 2000 people were dying of TB and by all accounts that appears to be more infectious.

Airports could have had similar units to nursing homes where you had to disinfect before boarding, wear a mask, during the flight and same at both ends. But it would still allow it all to work.

The state could have instructed the same set of people to increase their vitamin C, they could have issued various anti-virals known to work in advance. They are many many more things that could have been done.

Another thing not done was to carry out tests for Covid-19 by random sampling. This would give a true measure of the infection rate already out there and still retain the testing of focused groups too.

The approach taken was completely out of proportion to the problem and was not measured in anyway. Given this lockdown was implemented across much of the global largely at the behest of WHO, a body, where you would think national governments hold sway, but it turns out that Bill Gates has provided much of their funding and would therefore have alot of influence. This is the same man who has pushed vaccines all over the world and many injured due to contaminated products and ones not properly tested. We can only conclude there is something very very fishy going on.

I doubt Michael O'Leary is sitting at home, saying it's fine lads, sure there was no other way and I am happy with my fleet of 300 aircraft grounded for the last month and to continue so till next September or maybe October. He has likely be reassured that he will be bailed out as the price of keeping him onboard.

The authorities are desperately trying to make out this disease is more infectious and deadly than it really is and the propaganda is relentless.

I have already had one person tell me 10,000 people have died in Ireland so far. When I pointed out it was only 300 or so, and the 10k was the infection rate, they were surprised and confused. If 10,000 were dead in Ireland alone, then the lockdown would be more appropriate. The same person was convinced many children were dead from Covid 19. The actual fact is possibly just one in the UK, and I am sure if people spent time investigating it, we would discovered the poor child probably had leukemia or something.

Note to take to those running this show. On the next round of the epidemic next Winter make sure more people die as some of them are getting suspicious.

It is disgraceful that the media blatantly is scaring the life out of people and using emotion to do it. I have heard so many stories about nurses coming home from work and on their way home screaming at young people to break up their group because they were dealing with the dying drowning in the fluid of their own lungs. It is strange the way so many people hear the same story. Again when you probe, it's a friend of a friends who is a nurse.

Whether true or not, the point is that all the people who die of pneumonia each year from flu are also dying because they are basically drowning in the fluids of their own lungs. Why don't we hear this every year plastered all over the media a 1,000 times every flu season.

My point is that when the argument can't be won conclusively with the figures the believers are all reciting the intense emotional stories. So even if a handful are true and I have no doubt they are, sad as it is, but yet happens every day anyhow in any normal year, is that an excuse to shutdown the global economy. I don't think so because it hadn't before. The elite (i.e. the sort of people who make up the richest 100 people) in the world have utter contempt for the rest of us. These are the same people that own industries like the military industrial complex that manufacture bombs, bullets, missiles, mines,, grenades, explosives etc and where hundreds of thousands of people die in brutal wars where they supply arms to. And we are supposed to believe they care about us. Why because we live in the West or something?

author by Tpublication date Tue Apr 14, 2020 14:39author address author phone Report this post to the editors

British Hospitals Have Four Times More Empty Beds Than Normal
https://www.anti-empire.com/british-hospitals-have-four-times-more-empty-beds-than-normal/

Covid Doomsday Cult Said Sweden Would Be Drowning in Bodies. It’s Doing Better Than Lockdown Britain
https://www.anti-empire.com/according-to-covid-doomsday-cult-sweden-should-be-drowning-in-bodies-its-doing-better-than-lockdown-b...tain/

author by Tsingtaopublication date Mon Apr 20, 2020 19:40author address author phone Report this post to the editors

The Chinese Government is an authoritarian regime and citizens obey in a military style. Wuhan was swiftly locked down as soon as the coin dropped with the politburo. China seems to have got on top of the job of flattening the curve, after damage to the GDP aspect of the national economy. GDP is not the only way of measuring how an economy functions. African and Latin American countries in low income areas face a horrible rate of widespread death because they do not possess the financial and medical resources that rich developed democratic countries have. Here is how a China online news service is reporting the situation facing Africa's poorest countries:
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_7057420

author by Talesinpublication date Thu Apr 23, 2020 13:33author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Back to the drawing board
Has anybody noticed how the various media outlets are now pushing the 'second wave' hypothesis just as the pandemic is exposed as being a phantom.

author by anonpublication date Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:21author address author phone Report this post to the editors

These are the headlines everywhere today. So it looks like young people are dying. This is the picture shown on many websites.

They were only 37 and twins. The impression you getting reading the headlines and looking at the picture is omg it is true it could be one of us.

It turns out a bit of detective work done by reading just two or three of the articles in full instead of skimming headlines reveals:

Katy Davis who was a children's nurse at University Hospital in Southampton city centre passed away on Tuesday evening. The 38-year-old did have underlying health problems and had been off work self isolating for some time with her sister Emma- who died last night

And well yes technically they were nurses but

Emma Davis had worked at the same hospital as her sister in the colorectal surgery unit for nine years until 2013.

I see no one mentions what the underlying condition was. Was it cancer?

The dishonesty in this reporting is astounding and there is a co-ordinated effort to mislead.

The second photo is the one carried in almost all stories and gives the impression they were healthy one dead and dropped dead the next. The first picture is the most recent one and it shows two people that are definitely not as healthy looking as the first.

Recent photo of the two nurses. Not as healthy looking as portrayed
Recent photo of the two nurses. Not as healthy looking as portrayed

Younger picture carried on nearly all reports of the death by underlying cause
Younger picture carried on nearly all reports of the death by underlying cause

author by ukpublication date Sat Apr 25, 2020 23:08author address author phone Report this post to the editors

The two-metre social distancing rule for coronavirus was “conjured up out of nowhere”, a government adviser has claimed.

Nottingham Trent University sociology professor Dingwall told Radio 4's Today: “We cannot sustain [social distancing measures] without causing serious damage to society, to the economy and to the physical and mental health of the population.

'I think it will be much harder to get compliance with some of the measures that really do not have an evidence base.

“I mean the two-metre rule was conjured up out of nowhere.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-social-distancing-lockdown-scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-180826409.html

author by Tpublication date Sun May 03, 2020 23:05author address author phone Report this post to the editors

An article in the Belfast Telegraph for March 3rd reports that the Hong Kong Flu back in the winter of 1968 / 1969 killed 80,000 people in the UK.

The Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968-69 also began in southern China and led to a similar number of deaths worldwide – though in the UK the number was higher than for Asian flu, totalling around 80,000.


Was the country locked down then? Did they commit economic suicide, eh no!

Related Link: https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/history-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-uk-in-recent-times-39009641.html
author by anonpublication date Mon May 04, 2020 11:12author address author phone Report this post to the editors

REPORTED FROM ROME
Italian MP, Sgarbi denounces the Statistical Fraud on COVID-19
https://fromrome.info/2020/04/25/italian-senator-sgarbi-denounces-the-statistical-fraud-on-covid-19/

The speech of the Member of Parliament Vittorio Sgarbi in the session of the Italian Camera, Meeting no. 331 of Friday 24, April, 2020, regarding the approval of the ‘Cura Italia’ decree.

Vittorio Sgarbi, denounces the closure of 60% of the businesses for 25,000 COVID-19 Deaths, of which the National Institute of Health says 96.3% died NOT of COVID-19 but of other pathologies. That means only 925 have died of the virus. 24,075 have died of other things.

He says false statistics are being use to terrorize the citizens of Italy and establish a dictatorship. He makes his statements on the vigil of April, 25, which celebrates the liberation of Italy by the Allied powers in World War II.

HIGHLIGHTS:
“… let us be united in liberation against hypocrisy and lies, against falsifications, against the false numbers that are given to terrorize the Italians. The 25,000 dead, as Professor Bassetti said, died of heart attacks, cancer and other diseases…

…25 thousand Coronavirus people didn’t die in Italy. That’s not true! It’s a way to terrorize the Italians and impose a dictatorship of consent: it’s ridiculous!…”

author by surprisepublication date Mon May 25, 2020 19:24author address author phone Report this post to the editors

Seems like Tony is not the guy he makes himself out to be.

This is from his wikipedia entry. This might be "revised" in wikipedia once it is commonly known


Holohan had a role in the CervicalCheck cancer scandal. One day after Vicky Phelan publicly criticised CervicalCheck outside the High Court, Holohan advised in an email – dated 26 April 2018 – against any external review of the cancer screening programme, instead asking the Minister for Health Simon Harris to go for a report prepared by Holohan himself. Holohan told Harris the "appropriate way forward" was to "state that you have asked me to provide a report on the matter, including whether further actions or steps are required... I strongly advise that you do not commit to a review of CervicalCheck arising from the recent court case", that to announce a review "could unnecessarily undermine public confidence in CervicalCheck" when, wrote Holohan, there was "no evidence at this stage that there are quality or patient safety concerns with the CervicalCheck programme". Harris ignored Holohan's advice.[13]


Ref 13 is https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/top-medic-advised-against-cervical-check-review-910324.html

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