Shell QRA - What They Will Risk

mayo | rights, freedoms and repression | opinion/analysis

Friday July 08, 2005 14:57

by MNS

Shell E&P Ireland QRA makes for uneasy reading

The Quantified Risk Assessment published by Shell E&P Ireland outlines the extent to which they are willing to risk the lives of the people of Erris

Quote from Mr Andy Pyle, Managing Director of Shell E&P Ireland, on the RTÉ 9 p.m. news earlier this week:

“There is confusion, misinformation as I have said, that says this pipeline is operating at 345 bar. That is a high pressure but the pipeline is not operating at that pressure. It operates at 120 bar, which in fact gives an inherent over 2 times safety factor in the pipeline.”

Given his fondness for statistics, it is worth looking at the text below which is taken directly from the Onshore Pipeline Quantified Risk Assessment for the Corrib Field Development Project, which can be downloaded at the link to the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources at the end of this piece. Please check it for yourselves in case you feel you are confused or being deliberately misinformed:

“The risk is highest immediately above the pipeline. Here the risks are 2.6*10-7/yr (1 in 4 million per year) for the normal operating pressure of 120 bar and 5.7*10-7/yr (1 in 2 million per year) for the maximum pressure of 345 bar.” (QRA version F, page 8)

Please correct me if I’m wrong in my interpretation of this data, as I am not an expert, but does this not imply that in a country with a population of approx. 4 million, like Ireland, that Shell E&P Ireland deem it acceptable to risk 1 life per year at the normal operating pressure, and 2 lives per year at the maximum pressure, this of course over the predicted 30-year operating life of the pipeline????!

Furthermore, the people who live in proximity to this proposed pipeline will be glad to hear that “Assessment of these hazards and ways in which the risks could be managed led to recommendations which has subsequently been incorporated into the pipeline design in order to ensure that the risks were reduced to a tolerable, or As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) level.” (QRA version F, page 14)

Is one fatality per year tolerable? I naively thought that Minister Noel Dempsey and Shell E&P Ireland would have chosen the figure of 0 fatalities to be the most “Reasonably Practicable”. Silly me!

[Please note that the figure "-7" which features twice in the citation from the QRA above should actually be superscript]

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Comments (5 of 5)

Pipeline safety auditor ‘linked’ to Shell

by examiner

Fri Jul 08, 2005 16:20

Extract:

A BRITISH company that won a State contract to carry out an independent safety review of Shell’s pipeline plans for North Mayo was not asked whether it had any business dealings with Shell.

As the “Rossport Five” began their second week in jail for opposing the pipeline, it emerged that AEA Technology has regularly worked with Shell, but Minister for Natural Resources Noel Dempsey did not ask the company to disclose this information.

Resources

by R

Fri Jul 08, 2005 17:14

iNFO

Síog

by Síog

Sat Jul 09, 2005 01:33

In reply to mns. Does Noel Dempsey think the Irish people are stupid? Does Shell? Obviously, they do. Do they seriously believe that fathers, husbands, brothers and friends would go to prison on a whim? This is a serious issue which they have spent 5 years researching. These men and their supporters have reached the hearts of the nation. No longer are we afraid to speak out and say to our government "THIS IS WRONG". The people of Ireland deserve so much better. Thank you, the people of Erris, for the willingness to sacrifice so much for the greater good of your country.

Response to Síog

Sat Jul 09, 2005 21:25

Síog is absolutely right. The people of Erris, and the people of Ireland, are being treated with such contempt by Shell E&P Ireland and by the Government. The statistics quoted in the QRA, be they right or wrong, are horrifying - the implication being that a risk of 30 fatalities at the normal operating pressure and 60 fatalities at the maximum pressure, as I understand it from the report (and I'm not a statistician), over the 30-year operating life of the pipeline is considered tolerable????!! Can anyone clarify whether this is what the statistics quoted above mean, as I wouldn't wish to misinform anyone?

Keep up the pressure everyone!

Statistics

by Acco

Mon Jul 11, 2005 00:41

1 in 4 million per year means that their assessment of the risk of x(plosion?) occurring is once every 4 million years.

The levels of acceptable risk are proportionate to the effects of an incident. In the case of this pipeline the effect of an incident would be catastrophic.

Still 1 in 4 million appears to be a pretty low risk, if the figures are correct.

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Shell QRA - What They Will Risk

Comments (5 of 5)